FROZEN PREDICTION

Charlotte vs App State

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 3 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

App State by 10.9

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans home

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans home

Close-game gritModerately leans home

Defensive toughnessModerately leans home

Scoring punchSmall effect

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans home

Recent formModerately leans home

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesModerately leans away

Statement winsModerately leans home

WinningStrongly leans home

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-09-18T20:37:46.003549-05:00 · Snapshot 104 · Home win probability 0.7998 · 80% margin interval -5.7 to 27.6.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Sep 17, 2026 · 11:28 AM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.11881693013768486	0.11881693013768486	0.14696137821751482
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.044556348801631826	0.044556348801631826	0.076077323360323
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.029704232534421216	0.029704232534421216	0.05987058317649781
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.07426058133605304	0.07426058133605304	0.1464333806085534
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.07426058133605304	0.07426058133605304	0.03964932198321863
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.030405405405405407	0.030405405405405407	-0.021370733207426926
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.04054054054054054	0.04054054054054054	0.014380191924142902
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.05067567567567568	0.05067567567567568	0.04505222719046109
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.04054054054054054	0.04054054054054054	-0.004672916395698909
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.05067567567567568	0.05067567567567568	0.03217365493488607
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.08911269760326365	0.08911269760326365	0.1255947947693108
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.05940846506884243	0.05940846506884243	0.14744811192668927
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.044556348801631826	0.044556348801631826	0.03057639022138823
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.08911269760326365	0.08911269760326365	-0.07382527822979262
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.044556348801631826	0.044556348801631826	0.06717290997952326
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.11881693013768486	0.11881693013768486	0.3729927552396476

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.