FROZEN PREDICTION

Nicholls vs Sam Houston

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 3 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Sam Houston by 4.7

Why this pick?

Game controlSmall effect
Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans home
Close-game gritSmall effect
Defensive toughnessSmall effect
Scoring punchSmall effect
Transfer portal impactModerately leans home
Previous-season performanceSmall effect
Recruiting strengthSmall effect
Returning productionModerately leans home
Team talentSmall effect
Big-game winsSmall effect
Recent formSmall effect
Wins away from homeSmall effect
Tough schedulesSmall effect
Statement winsSmall effect
WinningModerately leans away
Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-09-18T20:37:46.003549-05:00 · Snapshot 104 · Home win probability 0.6411 · 80% margin interval -12.0 to 21.4.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used
Configuration
Revision 3
Engine version
3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff
Sep 17, 2026 · 11:28 AM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor keyNormalized share
adj_margin0.108108
avoid_bad_losses0.040541
close_game_wins0.027027
defense_ppg0.067568
offense_ppg0.067568
preseason_portal0.040541
preseason_previous_performance0.054054
preseason_recruiting0.067568
preseason_returning0.054054
preseason_talent0.067568
quality_wins0.081081
recent_form0.054054
road_neutral_wins0.040541
sos0.081081
statement_wins0.040541
win_pct0.108108
Retained calibration/contextFrozen value
versionprovisional-all-slates-policy-v1
calibration_kinddocumented_policy
validation_statusnot_historically_validated
applied_home_field_points2.5
applied_fcs_baseline_z-1.5
residual_scale13.0
residual_scale_sourcedocumented_policy_not_validated
intercept0.0
difference_coefficient7.0
home_field_coefficient2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

FactorHome evidenceAway evidenceNormalized shareHome effective shareAway effective shareWeighted difference
Game controlMeasuredFCS baseline estimate0.1081080.118816930137684860.10810810810810811-0.029252724571267125
Avoiding bad lossesMeasuredFCS baseline estimate0.0405410.0445563488016318260.040540540540540540.06203938870358622
Close-game gritMeasuredFCS baseline estimate0.0270270.0297042325344212160.027027027027027030.010158453555452099
Defensive toughnessMeasuredFCS baseline estimate0.0675680.074260581336053040.06756756756756757-0.040310678013039544
Scoring punchMeasuredFCS baseline estimate0.0675680.074260581336053040.06756756756756757-0.017073709802887874
Transfer portal impactMeasuredFCS baseline estimate0.0405410.0304054054054054070.040540540540540540.09638299971112696
Previous-season performanceMeasuredFCS baseline estimate0.0540540.040540540540540540.054054054054054060.017400523782682295
Recruiting strengthMeasuredFCS baseline estimate0.0675680.050675675675675680.067567567567567570.04527951366077443
Returning productionMeasuredFCS baseline estimate0.0540540.040540540540540540.054054054054054060.10537079742688589
Team talentMeasuredFCS baseline estimate0.0675680.050675675675675680.067567567567567570.03328859799311508
Big-game winsMeasuredFCS baseline estimate0.0810810.089112697603263650.081081081081081090.017966212736124157
Recent formMeasuredFCS baseline estimate0.0540540.059408465068842430.054054054054054060.026884204621285775
Wins away from homeMeasuredFCS baseline estimate0.0405410.0445563488016318260.040540540540540540.044113233197530605
Tough schedulesMeasuredFCS baseline estimate0.0810810.089112697603263650.081081081081081090.019722669539112253
Statement winsMeasuredFCS baseline estimate0.0405410.0445563488016318260.04054054054054054-0.002792524242264352
WinningMeasuredFCS baseline estimate0.1081080.118816930137684860.10810810810810811-0.07523781611234781

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.