FROZEN PREDICTION

North Texas vs Texas State

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 3 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Texas State by 0.1

Why this pick?

Game controlSmall effect

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritAway data unavailable

Defensive toughnessSmall effect

Scoring punchModerately leans away

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionModerately leans home

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsSmall effect

Recent formModerately leans away

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesModerately leans home

Statement winsModerately leans away

WinningModerately leans away

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-09-18T22:13:26.181715-05:00 · Snapshot 104 · Home win probability 0.5043 · 80% margin interval -16.5 to 16.8.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Sep 17, 2026 · 11:28 AM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.11881693013768486	0.1192368839427663	-0.03105481098571035
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.044556348801631826	0.044713831478537365	0.0002184541430146139
Close-game grit	Measured	Data unavailable	0.027027	0.029704232534421216	0.02702702702702703	-0.030382086985088444
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.07426058133605304	0.07452305246422894	-0.025304156869232985
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.07426058133605304	0.07452305246422894	-0.06978585025569818
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.030405405405405407	0.030405405405405407	-0.031229911671677983
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.04054054054054054	0.04054054054054054	-0.04186742295063206
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.05067567567567568	0.05067567567567568	0.02680376131771336
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.04054054054054054	0.04054054054054054	0.11448645169462338
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.05067567567567568	0.05067567567567568	0.01627795434360016
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.08911269760326365	0.08942766295707473	0.0003663659995953028
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.05940846506884243	0.05961844197138315	-0.07073059629670964
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.044556348801631826	0.044713831478537365	0.00005901693678008607
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.08911269760326365	0.08942766295707473	0.058371527935149534
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.044556348801631826	0.044713831478537365	-0.06718552650286845
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.11881693013768486	0.1192368839427663	-0.1863164608288201

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.