FROZEN PREDICTION

Buffalo vs Penn State

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 3 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Penn State by 11.1

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans home

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans home

Close-game gritHome data unavailable

Defensive toughnessModerately leans home

Scoring punchModerately leans home

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceModerately leans home

Recruiting strengthModerately leans home

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentModerately leans home

Big-game winsSmall effect

Recent formModerately leans home

Wins away from homeModerately leans home

Tough schedulesSmall effect

Statement winsModerately leans home

WinningModerately leans home

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-09-18T22:13:26.181715-05:00 · Snapshot 104 · Home win probability 0.8036 · 80% margin interval -5.5 to 27.8.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Sep 17, 2026 · 11:28 AM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.1192368839427663	0.11881693013768486	0.167216618593626
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.044713831478537365	0.044556348801631826	0.06757149779315433
Close-game grit	Data unavailable	Measured	0.027027	0.02702702702702703	0.029704232534421216	-0.029488496191409367
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.07452305246422894	0.07426058133605304	0.08652014723251472
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.07452305246422894	0.07426058133605304	0.05041372360069246
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.030405405405405407	0.030405405405405407	-0.04422860506588609
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.04054054054054054	0.04054054054054054	0.09272666654955733
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.05067567567567568	0.05067567567567568	0.07945742894362116
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.04054054054054054	0.04054054054054054	0.008021839812616463
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.05067567567567568	0.05067567567567568	0.1502862797093743
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.08942766295707473	0.08911269760326365	0.0201099026152272
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.05961844197138315	0.05940846506884243	0.12722641845795502
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.044713831478537365	0.044556348801631826	0.09990907550561523
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.08942766295707473	0.08911269760326365	0.032828885402133565
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.044713831478537365	0.044556348801631826	0.13459585651261471
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.1192368839427663	0.11881693013768486	0.1869756250011699

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.