FROZEN PREDICTION

Florida vs Auburn

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 3 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Auburn by 4.1

Why this pick?

Game controlSmall effect

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans away

Close-game gritAway data unavailable

Defensive toughnessSmall effect

Scoring punchSmall effect

Transfer portal impactModerately leans home

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionModerately leans away

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans home

Recent formModerately leans away

Wins away from homeModerately leans home

Tough schedulesModerately leans home

Statement winsModerately leans away

WinningSmall effect

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-09-18T22:13:26.181715-05:00 · Snapshot 104 · Home win probability 0.6247 · 80% margin interval -12.5 to 20.8.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Sep 17, 2026 · 11:28 AM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.11881693013768486	0.1192368839427663	0.014975947125945244
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.044556348801631826	0.044713831478537365	-0.06549773427760153
Close-game grit	Measured	Data unavailable	0.027027	0.029704232534421216	0.02702702702702703	0.029488496191409367
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.07426058133605304	0.07452305246422894	0.02781717744608482
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.07426058133605304	0.07452305246422894	-0.04111503039235365
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.030405405405405407	0.030405405405405407	0.056456189529929354
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.04054054054054054	0.04054054054054054	0.013614569914609596
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.05067567567567568	0.05067567567567568	-0.012723511171493285
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.04054054054054054	0.04054054054054054	-0.08520284228157685
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.05067567567567568	0.05067567567567568	-0.002550881475839692
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.08911269760326365	0.08942766295707473	0.17932322188019825
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.05940846506884243	0.05961844197138315	-0.061788020723933475
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.044556348801631826	0.044713831478537365	0.15042564095495575
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.08911269760326365	0.08942766295707473	0.09801112916932639
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.044556348801631826	0.044713831478537365	-0.06742294653309146
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.11881693013768486	0.1192368839427663	-0.0004792473813460818

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.