FROZEN PREDICTION

UT Martin vs Memphis

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 3 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Memphis by 7.2

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans away

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritModerately leans home

Defensive toughnessModerately leans away

Scoring punchSmall effect

Transfer portal impactModerately leans home

Previous-season performanceModerately leans home

Recruiting strengthModerately leans home

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentModerately leans home

Big-game winsSmall effect

Recent formModerately leans home

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesSmall effect

Statement winsSmall effect

WinningModerately leans home

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-09-18T22:13:26.181715-05:00 · Snapshot 104 · Home win probability 0.7112 · 80% margin interval -9.4 to 23.9.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Sep 17, 2026 · 11:28 AM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.108108	0.12417134115247323	0.10810810810810811	-0.07537191773510035
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.040541	0.04656425293217746	0.04054054054054054	0.03483565645548459
Close-game grit	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.027027	0.031042835288118308	0.02702702702702703	0.07135791746160569
Defensive toughness	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.067568	0.07760708822029577	0.06756756756756757	-0.06296268989672792
Scoring punch	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.067568	0.07760708822029577	0.06756756756756757	0.0036846859945953853
Transfer portal impact	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.040541	0.02533783783783784	0.04054054054054054	0.08177932609671926
Previous-season performance	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.054054	0.033783783783783786	0.05405405405405406	0.09181854632749656
Recruiting strength	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.067568	0.04222972972972973	0.06756756756756757	0.10224951569462884
Returning production	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.054054	0.033783783783783786	0.05405405405405406	0.033695026864831376
Team talent	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.067568	0.04222972972972973	0.06756756756756757	0.10496035865403479
Big-game wins	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.081081	0.09312850586435492	0.08108108108108109	0.01329504624128415
Recent form	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.054054	0.062085670576236617	0.05405405405405406	0.0522641616849678
Wins away from home	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.040541	0.04656425293217746	0.04054054054054054	0.04336076725358451
Tough schedules	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.081081	0.09312850586435492	0.08108108108108109	-0.03296512059907375
Statement wins	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.040541	0.04656425293217746	0.04054054054054054	0.041141241288287805
Winning	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.108108	0.12417134115247323	0.10810810810810811	0.1739315293612735

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.