FROZEN PREDICTION

UTEP vs Michigan

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 3 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Michigan by 9.8

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans home

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans home

Close-game gritAway data unavailable

Defensive toughnessModerately leans home

Scoring punchSmall effect

Transfer portal impactModerately leans away

Previous-season performanceModerately leans home

Recruiting strengthModerately leans home

Returning productionModerately leans home

Team talentModerately leans home

Big-game winsModerately leans home

Recent formSmall effect

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesSmall effect

Statement winsModerately leans away

WinningModerately leans home

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-09-19T11:50:46.066550-05:00 · Snapshot 104 · Home win probability 0.7735 · 80% margin interval -6.9 to 26.4.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Sep 17, 2026 · 11:28 AM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.11881693013768486	0.1192368839427663	0.07080932904655118
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.044556348801631826	0.044713831478537365	0.07846941531363255
Close-game grit	Measured	Data unavailable	0.027027	0.029704232534421216	0.02702702702702703	0.029488496191409367
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.07426058133605304	0.07452305246422894	0.13635209310947088
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.07426058133605304	0.07452305246422894	-0.03785162210674741
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.030405405405405407	0.030405405405405407	-0.05210768595589235
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.04054054054054054	0.04054054054054054	0.0945094822199412
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.05067567567567568	0.05067567567567568	0.11308517353148845
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.04054054054054054	0.04054054054054054	0.1039723898043008
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.05067567567567568	0.05067567567567568	0.13448519638351275
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.08911269760326365	0.08942766295707473	0.2228947149451875
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.05940846506884243	0.05961844197138315	0.0165095365932482
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.044556348801631826	0.044713831478537365	0.00005901693678008607
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.08911269760326365	0.08942766295707473	0.00604433920906234
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.044556348801631826	0.044713831478537365	-0.06718552650286845
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.11881693013768486	0.1192368839427663	0.1866762944108275

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.