FROZEN PREDICTION

Utah State vs Utah

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 3 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Utah by 15.9

Why this pick?

Game controlStrongly leans home

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans home

Close-game gritHome data unavailable

Defensive toughnessModerately leans home

Scoring punchModerately leans home

Transfer portal impactModerately leans away

Previous-season performanceModerately leans home

Recruiting strengthModerately leans home

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentModerately leans home

Big-game winsModerately leans home

Recent formModerately leans home

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesModerately leans home

Statement winsModerately leans home

WinningStrongly leans home

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-09-19T11:50:46.066550-05:00 · Snapshot 104 · Home win probability 0.8898 · 80% margin interval -0.7 to 32.6.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Sep 17, 2026 · 11:28 AM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.1192368839427663	0.11881693013768486	0.32215768010260515
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.044713831478537365	0.044556348801631826	0.09375502581143579
Close-game grit	Data unavailable	Measured	0.027027	0.02702702702702703	0.029704232534421216	0.030382086985088444
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.07452305246422894	0.07426058133605304	0.09461895900873135
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.07452305246422894	0.07426058133605304	0.22284671444775833
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.030405405405405407	0.030405405405405407	-0.06430773081528685
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.04054054054054054	0.04054054054054054	0.08345174373152561
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.05067567567567568	0.05067567567567568	0.06131458400229276
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.04054054054054054	0.04054054054054054	0.0042056247561290325
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.05067567567567568	0.05067567567567568	0.07730987523290413
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.08942766295707473	0.08911269760326365	0.1814922378287943
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.05961844197138315	0.05940846506884243	0.16418254289524548
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.044713831478537365	0.044556348801631826	-0.00005901693678008607
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.08942766295707473	0.08911269760326365	0.13907221864773064
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.044713831478537365	0.044556348801631826	0.13459585651261471
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.1192368839427663	0.11881693013768486	0.37347200262099367

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.