FROZEN PREDICTION

Stonehill vs Massachusetts

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 3 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Massachusetts by 12.4

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans home

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans home

Close-game gritHome data unavailable

Defensive toughnessModerately leans home

Scoring punchModerately leans home

Transfer portal impactModerately leans home

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans home

Recent formModerately leans home

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesSmall effect

Statement winsModerately leans home

WinningStrongly leans home

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-09-19T11:50:46.066550-05:00 · Snapshot 104 · Home win probability 0.8308 · 80% margin interval -4.2 to 29.1.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Sep 17, 2026 · 11:28 AM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.108108	0.1192368839427663	0.10810810810810811	0.1720785422058786
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.040541	0.044713831478537365	0.04054054054054054	0.11003278092797188
Close-game grit	Data unavailable	FCS baseline estimate	0.027027	0.02702702702702703	0.02702702702702703	0.04054054054054054
Defensive toughness	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.067568	0.07452305246422894	0.06756756756756757	0.11429423957647532
Scoring punch	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.067568	0.07452305246422894	0.06756756756756757	0.0759004731027654
Transfer portal impact	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.040541	0.030405405405405407	0.04054054054054054	0.08663397966547086
Previous-season performance	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.054054	0.04054054054054054	0.05405405405405406	0.017400523782682295
Recruiting strength	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.067568	0.05067567567567568	0.06756756756756757	0.016589819835656133
Returning production	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.054054	0.04054054054054054	0.05405405405405406	0.019311253806097578
Team talent	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.067568	0.05067567567567568	0.06756756756756757	0.037595575915230176
Big-game wins	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.081081	0.08942766295707473	0.08108108108108109	0.10930456963461413
Recent form	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.054054	0.05961844197138315	0.05405405405405406	0.1335593367560413
Wins away from home	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.040541	0.044713831478537365	0.04054054054054054	0.044054216260750526
Tough schedules	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.081081	0.08942766295707473	0.08108108108108109	0.013318676591580814
Statement wins	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.040541	0.044713831478537365	0.04054054054054054	0.13180333227035035
Winning	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.108108	0.1192368839427663	0.10810810810810811	0.29823418650864586

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.