FROZEN PREDICTION

Mississippi State vs South Carolina

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 3 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

South Carolina by 8.3

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans home

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritNot used — data unavailable

Defensive toughnessModerately leans home

Scoring punchModerately leans home

Transfer portal impactModerately leans home

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionModerately leans home

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans home

Recent formSmall effect

Wins away from homeModerately leans away

Tough schedulesModerately leans home

Statement winsNeutral effect

WinningNeutral effect

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-09-19T11:50:46.066550-05:00 · Snapshot 104 · Home win probability 0.7377 · 80% margin interval -8.4 to 24.9.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Sep 17, 2026 · 11:28 AM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.1192368839427663	0.1192368839427663	0.20818375037401632
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.044713831478537365	0.044713831478537365	0.013087922690112178
Close-game grit	Data unavailable	Data unavailable	0.027027	0.02702702702702703	0.02702702702702703	0.0
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.07452305246422894	0.07452305246422894	0.1169580698523586
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.07452305246422894	0.07452305246422894	0.10982445436055989
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.030405405405405407	0.030405405405405407	0.05623587269273937
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.04054054054054054	0.04054054054054054	0.012528058303662012
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.05067567567567568	0.05067567567567568	0.024905851178910345
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.04054054054054054	0.04054054054054054	0.054673121829677276
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.05067567567567568	0.05067567567567568	0.023760287693355447
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.08942766295707473	0.08942766295707473	0.12211511054561756
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.05961844197138315	0.05961844197138315	0.012330771793919656
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.044713831478537365	0.044713831478537365	-0.06509836013836133
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.08942766295707473	0.08942766295707473	0.13475116112118893
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.044713831478537365	0.044713831478537365	0.0
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.1192368839427663	0.1192368839427663	0.0

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.