FROZEN PREDICTION

Florida State vs Alabama

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 3 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Alabama by 10.4

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans home

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans home

Close-game gritHome data unavailable

Defensive toughnessSmall effect

Scoring punchModerately leans home

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans home

Recent formModerately leans home

Wins away from homeModerately leans home

Tough schedulesSmall effect

Statement winsModerately leans home

WinningModerately leans home

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-09-19T13:05:18.597167-05:00 · Snapshot 104 · Home win probability 0.7881 · 80% margin interval -6.3 to 27.1.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Sep 17, 2026 · 11:28 AM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.1192368839427663	0.11881693013768486	0.1446616376725599
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.044713831478537365	0.044556348801631826	0.0676483241737252
Close-game grit	Data unavailable	Measured	0.027027	0.02702702702702703	0.029704232534421216	0.030382086985088444
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.07452305246422894	0.07426058133605304	0.021859437934753694
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.07452305246422894	0.07426058133605304	0.0960709139493414
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.030405405405405407	0.030405405405405407	0.027982992283590833
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.04054054054054054	0.04054054054054054	0.019420647372583873
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.05067567567567568	0.05067567567567568	0.030874141573230512
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.04054054054054054	0.04054054054054054	-0.02133965154035837
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.05067567567567568	0.05067567567567568	0.033774200596803805
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.08942766295707473	0.08911269760326365	0.17922338704517862
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.05961844197138315	0.05940846506884243	0.10067622458235094
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.044713831478537365	0.044556348801631826	0.12975683484861758
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.08942766295707473	0.08911269760326365	0.012739480123573798
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.044713831478537365	0.044556348801631826	0.06742294653309146
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.1192368839427663	0.11881693013768486	0.1869756250011699

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.