FROZEN PREDICTION

Florida International vs Florida Atlantic

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 3 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Florida Atlantic by 4.2

Why this pick?

Game controlSmall effect

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans away

Close-game gritAway data unavailable

Defensive toughnessSmall effect

Scoring punchModerately leans home

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionModerately leans home

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans home

Recent formModerately leans away

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesModerately leans home

Statement winsSmall effect

WinningSmall effect

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-09-19T13:05:18.597167-05:00 · Snapshot 104 · Home win probability 0.6264 · 80% margin interval -12.5 to 20.8.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Sep 17, 2026 · 11:28 AM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.11881693013768486	0.1192368839427663	0.04788063351420591
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.044556348801631826	0.044713831478537365	-0.054314557065786175
Close-game grit	Measured	Data unavailable	0.027027	0.029704232534421216	0.02702702702702703	0.029488496191409367
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.07426058133605304	0.07452305246422894	-0.03670073491033318
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.07426058133605304	0.07452305246422894	0.06051862392982401
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.030405405405405407	0.030405405405405407	0.0007160297208673901
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.04054054054054054	0.04054054054054054	-0.00291164074312307
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.05067567567567568	0.05067567567567568	0.0005553265466376953
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.04054054054054054	0.04054054054054054	0.05732110778724001
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.05067567567567568	0.05067567567567568	0.016126566718921258
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.08911269760326365	0.08942766295707473	0.08768275342473607
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.05940846506884243	0.05961844197138315	-0.06133201482363003
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.044556348801631826	0.044713831478537365	0.00005901693678008607
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.08911269760326365	0.08942766295707473	0.09583662773282914
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.044556348801631826	0.044713831478537365	0.00022480350687782702
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.11881693013768486	0.1192368839427663	0.0001799167910036814

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.