FROZEN PREDICTION

East Carolina vs Old Dominion

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 3 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Old Dominion by 7.0

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans home

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritHome data unavailable

Defensive toughnessModerately leans home

Scoring punchSmall effect

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentModerately leans away

Big-game winsModerately leans home

Recent formModerately leans home

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesSmall effect

Statement winsModerately leans home

WinningModerately leans home

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-09-19T13:05:18.597167-05:00 · Snapshot 104 · Home win probability 0.7053 · 80% margin interval -9.6 to 23.7.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Sep 17, 2026 · 11:28 AM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.1192368839427663	0.11881693013768486	0.08270593844305357
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.044713831478537365	0.044556348801631826	0.025957391237209762
Close-game grit	Data unavailable	Measured	0.027027	0.02702702702702703	0.029704232534421216	0.030382086985088444
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.07452305246422894	0.07426058133605304	0.09608870126587768
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.07452305246422894	0.07426058133605304	0.03993416680652408
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.030405405405405407	0.030405405405405407	-0.00033047525578495246
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.04054054054054054	0.04054054054054054	0.0014784437611680377
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.05067567567567568	0.05067567567567568	-0.030105232081253624
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.04054054054054054	0.04054054054054054	-0.006853610713691748
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.05067567567567568	0.05067567567567568	-0.05075270117360571
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.08942766295707473	0.08911269760326365	0.09133835689848997
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.05961844197138315	0.05940846506884243	0.06662033903206975
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.044713831478537365	0.044556348801631826	-0.00005901693678008607
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.08942766295707473	0.08911269760326365	0.04514562021005876
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.044713831478537365	0.044556348801631826	0.06718552650286845
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.1192368839427663	0.11881693013768486	0.1863164608288201

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.