FROZEN PREDICTION

UConn vs Southern Miss

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 3 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Southern Miss by 2.3

Why this pick?

Game controlSmall effect
Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect
Close-game gritNot used — data unavailable
Defensive toughnessSmall effect
Scoring punchSmall effect
Transfer portal impactSmall effect
Previous-season performanceSmall effect
Recruiting strengthSmall effect
Returning productionModerately leans home
Team talentSmall effect
Big-game winsNeutral effect
Recent formSmall effect
Wins away from homeNeutral effect
Tough schedulesSmall effect
Statement winsNeutral effect
WinningNeutral effect
Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-09-19T13:05:18.597167-05:00 · Snapshot 104 · Home win probability 0.5688 · 80% margin interval -14.4 to 18.9.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used
Configuration
Revision 3
Engine version
3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff
Sep 17, 2026 · 11:28 AM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor keyNormalized share
adj_margin0.108108
avoid_bad_losses0.040541
close_game_wins0.027027
defense_ppg0.067568
offense_ppg0.067568
preseason_portal0.040541
preseason_previous_performance0.054054
preseason_recruiting0.067568
preseason_returning0.054054
preseason_talent0.067568
quality_wins0.081081
recent_form0.054054
road_neutral_wins0.040541
sos0.081081
statement_wins0.040541
win_pct0.108108
Retained calibration/contextFrozen value
versionprovisional-all-slates-policy-v1
calibration_kinddocumented_policy
validation_statusnot_historically_validated
applied_home_field_points2.5
applied_fcs_baseline_z-1.5
residual_scale13.0
residual_scale_sourcedocumented_policy_not_validated
intercept0.0
difference_coefficient7.0
home_field_coefficient2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

FactorHome evidenceAway evidenceNormalized shareHome effective shareAway effective shareWeighted difference
Game controlMeasuredMeasured0.1081080.11923688394276630.1192368839427663-0.041071041261353546
Avoiding bad lossesMeasuredMeasured0.0405410.0447138314785373650.044713831478537365-0.023994524931872346
Close-game gritData unavailableData unavailable0.0270270.027027027027027030.027027027027027030.0
Defensive toughnessMeasuredMeasured0.0675680.074523052464228940.07452305246422894-0.04751951022575526
Scoring punchMeasuredMeasured0.0675680.074523052464228940.07452305246422894-0.04542299578448624
Transfer portal impactMeasuredMeasured0.0405410.0304054054054054070.0304054054054054070.0011318777510634717
Previous-season performanceMeasuredMeasured0.0540540.040540540540540540.04054054054054054-0.015432588380110798
Recruiting strengthMeasuredMeasured0.0675680.050675675675675680.050675675675675680.02172742335609573
Returning productionMeasuredMeasured0.0540540.040540540540540540.040540540540540540.13469681510602116
Team talentMeasuredMeasured0.0675680.050675675675675680.050675675675675680.013023120413003509
Big-game winsMeasuredMeasured0.0810810.089427662957074730.089427662957074730.0
Recent formMeasuredMeasured0.0540540.059618441971383150.05961844197138315-0.0226064149555194
Wins away from homeMeasuredMeasured0.0405410.0447138314785373650.0447138314785373650.0
Tough schedulesMeasuredMeasured0.0810810.089427662957074730.08942766295707473-0.009899594681624074
Statement winsMeasuredMeasured0.0405410.0447138314785373650.0447138314785373650.0
WinningMeasuredMeasured0.1081080.11923688394276630.11923688394276630.0

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.