FROZEN PREDICTION

BYU vs Colorado State

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 3 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

BYU by 0.5

Why this pick?

Game controlSmall effect

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritNot used — data unavailable

Defensive toughnessModerately leans away

Scoring punchSmall effect

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceModerately leans away

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionModerately leans away

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans away

Recent formSmall effect

Wins away from homeNeutral effect

Tough schedulesModerately leans away

Statement winsModerately leans home

WinningNeutral effect

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-09-19T13:05:18.597167-05:00 · Snapshot 104 · Home win probability 0.4836 · 80% margin interval -17.2 to 16.1.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Sep 17, 2026 · 11:28 AM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.1192368839427663	0.1192368839427663	-0.02092550609938923
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.044713831478537365	0.044713831478537365	0.023994524931872353
Close-game grit	Data unavailable	Data unavailable	0.027027	0.02702702702702703	0.02702702702702703	0.0
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.07452305246422894	0.07452305246422894	-0.08440844895355654
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.07452305246422894	0.07452305246422894	-0.014150262480576367
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.030405405405405407	0.030405405405405407	-0.0019277723254122053
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.04054054054054054	0.04054054054054054	-0.10535746827115802
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.05067567567567568	0.05067567567567568	-0.04682927213970174
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.04054054054054054	0.04054054054054054	-0.06059214926422924
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.05067567567567568	0.05067567567567568	-0.024846493900426654
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.08942766295707473	0.08942766295707473	-0.11351146120441709
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.05961844197138315	0.05961844197138315	0.020551286323199455
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.044713831478537365	0.044713831478537365	0.0
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.08942766295707473	0.08942766295707473	-0.0727292535838234
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.044713831478537365	0.044713831478537365	0.06741033000974626
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.1192368839427663	0.1192368839427663	0.0

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.