FROZEN PREDICTION

Colorado vs Northwestern

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 3 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Northwestern by 3.2

Why this pick?

Game controlSmall effect

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritHome data unavailable

Defensive toughnessSmall effect

Scoring punchSmall effect

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionModerately leans home

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans away

Recent formSmall effect

Wins away from homeModerately leans away

Tough schedulesHome data unavailable

Statement winsModerately leans home

WinningSmall effect

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-09-19T13:05:18.597167-05:00 · Snapshot 104 · Home win probability 0.5961 · 80% margin interval -13.5 to 19.8.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Sep 17, 2026 · 11:28 AM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.11441441441441443	0.11881693013768486	0.008442813457925545
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.042905405405405404	0.044556348801631826	0.030787172316471434
Close-game grit	Data unavailable	Measured	0.027027	0.02702702702702703	0.029704232534421216	-0.029488496191409367
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.07150900900900901	0.07426058133605304	0.03091483993533998
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.07150900900900901	0.07426058133605304	-0.013075973588630566
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.03547297297297297	0.030405405405405407	-0.00036869144629390893
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.0472972972972973	0.04054054054054054	0.03929963804118307
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.05912162162162163	0.05067567567567568	-0.003077556954564663
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.0472972972972973	0.04054054054054054	0.1285555473563674
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.05912162162162163	0.05067567567567568	-0.027918214001635758
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.08581081081081081	0.08911269760326365	-0.0718770111530363
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.05720720720720721	0.05940846506884243	-0.0011029410036704247
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.042905405405405404	0.044556348801631826	-0.06402460645564334
Tough schedules	Data unavailable	Measured	0.081081	0.08108108108108109	0.08911269760326365	0.008263003120407585
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.042905405405405404	0.044556348801631826	0.06455169344295007
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.11441441441441443	0.11881693013768486	-0.005024110047778363

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.