FROZEN PREDICTION

Duquesne vs Washington State

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 3 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Washington State by 5.9

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans away

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritHome data unavailable

Defensive toughnessModerately leans home

Scoring punchSmall effect

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceModerately leans home

Recruiting strengthModerately leans home

Returning productionModerately leans home

Team talentModerately leans home

Big-game winsSmall effect

Recent formSmall effect

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesModerately leans home

Statement winsSmall effect

WinningModerately leans away

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-09-19T14:09:58.762495-05:00 · Snapshot 104 · Home win probability 0.6750 · 80% margin interval -10.8 to 22.6.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Sep 17, 2026 · 11:28 AM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.108108	0.1192368839427663	0.10810810810810811	-0.06431717056923739
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.040541	0.044713831478537365	0.04054054054054054	0.016236001648834514
Close-game grit	Data unavailable	FCS baseline estimate	0.027027	0.02702702702702703	0.02702702702702703	0.04054054054054054
Defensive toughness	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.067568	0.07452305246422894	0.06756756756756757	0.06400012122302337
Scoring punch	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.067568	0.07452305246422894	0.06756756756756757	-0.02289872866500045
Transfer portal impact	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.040541	0.030405405405405407	0.04054054054054054	0.0295719188332691
Previous-season performance	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.054054	0.04054054054054054	0.05405405405405406	0.09385127373834787
Recruiting strength	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.067568	0.05067567567567568	0.06756756756756757	0.08539913446639466
Returning production	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.054054	0.04054054054054054	0.05405405405405406	0.15400806891211877
Team talent	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.067568	0.05067567567567568	0.06756756756756757	0.06814938326605188
Big-game wins	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.081081	0.08942766295707473	0.08108108108108109	0.017599846736528854
Recent form	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.054054	0.05961844197138315	0.05405405405405406	-0.025918645111986466
Wins away from home	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.040541	0.044713831478537365	0.04054054054054054	0.044054216260750526
Tough schedules	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.081081	0.08942766295707473	0.08108108108108109	0.06455429884718303
Statement wins	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.040541	0.044713831478537365	0.04054054054054054	-0.003017327749142179
Winning	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.108108	0.1192368839427663	0.10810810810810811	-0.07607689707570126

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.