FROZEN PREDICTION

USC vs Rutgers

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 3 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

USC by 8.1

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans away

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans away

Close-game gritAway data unavailable

Defensive toughnessModerately leans away

Scoring punchModerately leans away

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthModerately leans away

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans away

Recent formModerately leans away

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesSmall effect

Statement winsModerately leans away

WinningStrongly leans away

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-09-19T14:09:58.762495-05:00 · Snapshot 104 · Home win probability 0.2659 · 80% margin interval -24.8 to 8.5.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Sep 17, 2026 · 11:28 AM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.11881693013768486	0.1248012718600954	-0.22582311079014294
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.044556348801631826	0.04680047694753577	-0.07202679559946927
Close-game grit	Measured	Data unavailable	0.027027	0.029704232534421216	0.02702702702702703	-0.030382086985088444
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.07426058133605304	0.07800079491255962	-0.11095347768200058
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.07426058133605304	0.07800079491255962	-0.099537461456806
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.030405405405405407	0.02533783783783784	0.04444742518543213
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.04054054054054054	0.033783783783783786	-0.03347817148624167
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.05067567567567568	0.04222972972972973	-0.05375999681917219
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.04054054054054054	0.033783783783783786	-0.018615358461505593
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.05067567567567568	0.04222972972972973	-0.04790894984048624
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.08911269760326365	0.09360095389507155	-0.18938477520135286
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.05940846506884243	0.0624006359300477	-0.14568171060314672
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.044556348801631826	0.04680047694753577	0.0008409913491162352
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.08911269760326365	0.09360095389507155	-0.018434711655991212
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.044556348801631826	0.04680047694753577	-0.13790884084739324
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.11881693013768486	0.1248012718600954	-0.3798220304238296

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.