FROZEN PREDICTION

Wagner vs California

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 3 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

California by 13.2

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans home

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritModerately leans home

Defensive toughnessModerately leans home

Scoring punchModerately leans home

Transfer portal impactModerately leans home

Previous-season performanceModerately leans home

Recruiting strengthModerately leans home

Returning productionModerately leans home

Team talentModerately leans home

Big-game winsModerately leans home

Recent formSmall effect

Wins away from homeModerately leans home

Tough schedulesModerately leans home

Statement winsSmall effect

WinningModerately leans home

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-09-19T14:09:58.762495-05:00 · Snapshot 104 · Home win probability 0.8454 · 80% margin interval -3.4 to 29.9.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Sep 17, 2026 · 11:28 AM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.108108	0.11881693013768486	0.10810810810810811	0.14088235382122716
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.040541	0.044556348801631826	0.04054054054054054	0.029434821549162077
Close-game grit	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.027027	0.029704232534421216	0.02702702702702703	0.0700290367319499
Defensive toughness	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.067568	0.07426058133605304	0.06756756756756757	0.09757867349383142
Scoring punch	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.067568	0.07426058133605304	0.06756756756756757	0.10592678142650486
Transfer portal impact	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.040541	0.030405405405405407	0.04054054054054054	0.06719101878345618
Previous-season performance	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.054054	0.04054054054054054	0.05405405405405406	0.06856936524651913
Recruiting strength	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.067568	0.05067567567567568	0.06756756756756757	0.10427697042533181
Returning production	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.054054	0.04054054054054054	0.05405405405405406	0.10630538070602567
Team talent	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.067568	0.05067567567567568	0.06756756756756757	0.12747440868710108
Big-game wins	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.081081	0.08911269760326365	0.08108108108108109	0.15697353560934724
Recent form	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.054054	0.05940846506884243	0.05405405405405406	0.008453190630449622
Wins away from home	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.040541	0.044556348801631826	0.04054054054054054	0.1683448135704409
Tough schedules	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.081081	0.08911269760326365	0.08108108108108109	0.17181035299464925
Statement wins	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.040541	0.044556348801631826	0.04054054054054054	-0.002792524242264352
Winning	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.108108	0.11881693013768486	0.10810810810810811	0.11125856150747598

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.