FROZEN PREDICTION

Georgia Southern vs Jacksonville State

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 3 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Jacksonville State by 1.0

Why this pick?

Game controlSmall effect

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritAway data unavailable

Defensive toughnessModerately leans away

Scoring punchModerately leans home

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionModerately leans home

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsSmall effect

Recent formSmall effect

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesSmall effect

Statement winsSmall effect

WinningModerately leans away

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-09-19T14:09:58.762495-05:00 · Snapshot 104 · Home win probability 0.5303 · 80% margin interval -15.7 to 17.6.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Sep 17, 2026 · 11:28 AM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.12417134115247323	0.1192368839427663	-0.030963250948561876
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.04656425293217746	0.044713831478537365	-0.025748922137756924
Close-game grit	Measured	Data unavailable	0.027027	0.031042835288118308	0.02702702702702703	-0.0317512368277641
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.07760708822029577	0.07452305246422894	-0.0928172501505509
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.07760708822029577	0.07452305246422894	0.05050400723305386
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.02533783783783784	0.030405405405405407	-0.009894401219472115
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.033783783783783786	0.04054054054054054	0.0107820454055047
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.04222972972972973	0.05067567567567568	-0.023176866632210042
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.033783783783783786	0.04054054054054054	0.06614930246442065
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.04222972972972973	0.05067567567567568	-0.011987563863725847
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.09312850586435492	0.08942766295707473	-0.0005097245413491144
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.062085670576236617	0.05961844197138315	-0.02437991709722099
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.04656425293217746	0.044713831478537365	-0.0006934490071660165
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.09312850586435492	0.08942766295707473	-0.0010519401742031653
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.04656425293217746	0.044713831478537365	-0.023251760972316286
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.12417134115247323	0.1192368839427663	-0.06708092923338789

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.