FROZEN PREDICTION

Nevada vs Middle Tennessee

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 3 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Middle Tennessee by 4.8

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans home

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritAway data unavailable

Defensive toughnessSmall effect

Scoring punchModerately leans home

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans home

Recent formSmall effect

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesModerately leans home

Statement winsSmall effect

WinningSmall effect

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-09-19T15:05:13.761085-05:00 · Snapshot 104 · Home win probability 0.6432 · 80% margin interval -11.9 to 21.4.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Sep 17, 2026 · 11:28 AM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.11881693013768486	0.1192368839427663	0.08063192753982104
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.044556348801631826	0.044713831478537365	0.023959452019003027
Close-game grit	Measured	Data unavailable	0.027027	0.029704232534421216	0.02702702702702703	-0.030382086985088444
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.07426058133605304	0.07452305246422894	-0.038321657059414316
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.07426058133605304	0.07452305246422894	0.0696775573640167
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.030405405405405407	0.030405405405405407	0.030899436415893045
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.04054054054054054	0.04054054054054054	-0.006947175921039592
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.05067567567567568	0.05067567567567568	-0.006611652531733646
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.04054054054054054	0.04054054054054054	-0.004672916395698909
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.05067567567567568	0.05067567567567568	0.012058024305675437
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.08911269760326365	0.08942766295707473	0.09174810371011499
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.05940846506884243	0.05961844197138315	-0.00003282710982323994
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.044556348801631826	0.044713831478537365	0.00005901693678008607
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.08911269760326365	0.08942766295707473	0.10199445928742108
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.044556348801631826	0.044713831478537365	-0.000012616523345183612
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.11881693013768486	0.1192368839427663	0.0001799167910036814

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.