FROZEN PREDICTION

New Mexico vs Oklahoma

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 3 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Oklahoma by 1.0

Why this pick?

Game controlSmall effect

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans away

Close-game gritAway data unavailable

Defensive toughnessSmall effect

Scoring punchModerately leans away

Transfer portal impactModerately leans away

Previous-season performanceModerately leans home

Recruiting strengthModerately leans home

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentModerately leans home

Big-game winsSmall effect

Recent formModerately leans away

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesModerately leans home

Statement winsModerately leans away

WinningModerately leans away

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-09-19T15:05:13.761085-05:00 · Snapshot 104 · Home win probability 0.5304 · 80% margin interval -15.7 to 17.7.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Sep 17, 2026 · 11:28 AM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.11881693013768486	0.1192368839427663	-0.04888369352098959
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.044556348801631826	0.044713831478537365	-0.08288683675996107
Close-game grit	Measured	Data unavailable	0.027027	0.029704232534421216	0.02702702702702703	-0.030382086985088444
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.07426058133605304	0.07452305246422894	0.006046304396807291
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.07426058133605304	0.07452305246422894	-0.08993963865515828
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.030405405405405407	0.030405405405405407	-0.07358857758191426
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.04054054054054054	0.04054054054054054	0.06042359547693595
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.05067567567567568	0.05067567567567568	0.16835272328698198
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.04054054054054054	0.04054054054054054	0.007788193992831531
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.05067567567567568	0.05067567567567568	0.16055092836619722
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.08911269760326365	0.08942766295707473	-0.02746002917453629
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.05940846506884243	0.05961844197138315	-0.07817114427134339
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.044556348801631826	0.044713831478537365	0.00005901693678008607
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.08911269760326365	0.08942766295707473	0.0671568009611907
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.044556348801631826	0.044713831478537365	-0.06742294653309146
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.11881693013768486	0.1192368839427663	-0.1869756250011699

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.