FROZEN PREDICTION

Kennesaw State vs Tennessee

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 3 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Tennessee by 7.8

Why this pick?

Game controlSmall effect

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans home

Close-game gritNot used — data unavailable

Defensive toughnessModerately leans away

Scoring punchModerately leans home

Transfer portal impactModerately leans away

Previous-season performanceModerately leans home

Recruiting strengthModerately leans home

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentModerately leans home

Big-game winsModerately leans home

Recent formModerately leans home

Wins away from homeModerately leans home

Tough schedulesModerately leans away

Statement winsModerately leans home

WinningModerately leans home

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-09-19T15:25:47.346938-05:00 · Snapshot 104 · Home win probability 0.7266 · 80% margin interval -8.8 to 24.5.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Sep 17, 2026 · 11:28 AM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.1192368839427663	0.1192368839427663	0.01143853042114977
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.044713831478537365	0.044713831478537365	0.07634621569232111
Close-game grit	Data unavailable	Data unavailable	0.027027	0.02702702702702703	0.02702702702702703	0.0
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.07452305246422894	0.07452305246422894	-0.11119265688392767
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.07452305246422894	0.07452305246422894	0.07353481115132862
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.030405405405405407	0.030405405405405407	-0.07824277076755233
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.04054054054054054	0.04054054054054054	0.06273218043234535
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.05067567567567568	0.05067567567567568	0.19082618974784005
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.04054054054054054	0.04054054054054054	0.045483052918136084
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.05067567567567568	0.05067567567567568	0.15448785399780676
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.08942766295707473	0.08942766295707473	0.0725874405444616
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.05961844197138315	0.05961844197138315	0.07192950213119809
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.044713831478537365	0.044713831478537365	0.06487177990102991
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.08942766295707473	0.08942766295707473	-0.1273422769480467
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.044713831478537365	0.044713831478537365	0.06741033000974626
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.1192368839427663	0.1192368839427663	0.18715554179217359

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.