FROZEN PREDICTION

Georgia State vs UCF

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 3 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Georgia State by 1.5

Why this pick?

Game controlSmall effect

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritAway data unavailable

Defensive toughnessSmall effect

Scoring punchSmall effect

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceModerately leans home

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans away

Recent formSmall effect

Wins away from homeModerately leans away

Tough schedulesSmall effect

Statement winsModerately leans away

WinningModerately leans away

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-09-19T17:04:12.463914-05:00 · Snapshot 104 · Home win probability 0.4545 · 80% margin interval -18.1 to 15.2.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Sep 17, 2026 · 11:28 AM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.11881693013768486	0.1192368839427663	-0.022494860699635022
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.044556348801631826	0.044713831478537365	-0.04145711351738666
Close-game grit	Measured	Data unavailable	0.027027	0.029704232534421216	0.02702702702702703	-0.030382086985088444
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.07426058133605304	0.07452305246422894	0.03483439285008168
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.07426058133605304	0.07452305246422894	0.004371455807425123
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.030405405405405407	0.030405405405405407	-0.00005507920929750075
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.04054054054054054	0.04054054054054054	0.060998707240996625
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.05067567567567568	0.05067567567567568	0.028434896939013913
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.04054054054054054	0.04054054054054054	-0.03380076192888881
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.05067567567567568	0.05067567567567568	0.03709753742756773
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.08911269760326365	0.08942766295707473	-0.2101706994691004
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.05940846506884243	0.05961844197138315	-0.039138176635051855
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.044556348801631826	0.044713831478537365	-0.1508390720488923
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.08911269760326365	0.08942766295707473	0.047703734417639754
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.044556348801631826	0.044713831478537365	-0.06742294653309146
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.11881693013768486	0.1192368839427663	-0.1869756250011699

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.