FROZEN PREDICTION

Ohio vs South Alabama

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 3 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

South Alabama by 3.0

Why this pick?

Game controlSmall effect

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans home

Close-game gritModerately leans away

Defensive toughnessSmall effect

Scoring punchSmall effect

Transfer portal impactModerately leans away

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsSmall effect

Recent formModerately leans home

Wins away from homeNeutral effect

Tough schedulesModerately leans away

Statement winsModerately leans home

WinningNeutral effect

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-09-19T17:04:12.463914-05:00 · Snapshot 104 · Home win probability 0.5914 · 80% margin interval -13.7 to 19.7.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Sep 17, 2026 · 11:28 AM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.11881693013768486	0.11881693013768486	0.04364286215087279
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.044556348801631826	0.044556348801631826	0.05216730744707863
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.029704232534421216	0.029704232534421216	-0.05987058317649781
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.07426058133605304	0.07426058133605304	-0.004495930441392307
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.07426058133605304	0.07426058133605304	0.00954644385852773
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.030405405405405407	0.030405405405405407	-0.06626304274534782
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.04054054054054054	0.04054054054054054	-0.027967596200832577
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.05067567567567568	0.05067567567567568	0.009841257506885474
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.04054054054054054	0.04054054054054054	0.025077984656917504
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.05067567567567568	0.05067567567567568	0.02833976333989259
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.08911269760326365	0.08911269760326365	0.02524115872516612
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.05940846506884243	0.05940846506884243	0.09625085084103328
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.044556348801631826	0.044556348801631826	0.0
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.08911269760326365	0.08911269760326365	-0.1263279902077437
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.044556348801631826	0.044556348801631826	0.06717290997952326
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.11881693013768486	0.11881693013768486	0.0

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.