FROZEN PREDICTION

LSU vs Ole Miss

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 3 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

LSU by 0.2

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans away

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans away

Close-game gritAway data unavailable

Defensive toughnessModerately leans away

Scoring punchModerately leans away

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans away

Recent formModerately leans away

Wins away from homeModerately leans home

Tough schedulesSmall effect

Statement winsModerately leans away

WinningSmall effect

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-09-19T17:04:12.463914-05:00 · Snapshot 104 · Home win probability 0.4949 · 80% margin interval -16.8 to 16.5.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Sep 17, 2026 · 11:28 AM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.11881693013768486	0.1192368839427663	-0.1126309624708042
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.044556348801631826	0.044713831478537365	-0.061150458657011644
Close-game grit	Measured	Data unavailable	0.027027	0.029704232534421216	0.02702702702702703	0.029488496191409367
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.07426058133605304	0.07452305246422894	-0.05494516238367561
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.07426058133605304	0.07452305246422894	-0.09567734586882914
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.030405405405405407	0.030405405405405407	0.018506614323957327
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.04054054054054054	0.04054054054054054	0.03582350928438584
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.05067567567567568	0.05067567567567568	-0.040443016853368076
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.04054054054054054	0.04054054054054054	0.04532728903827946
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.05067567567567568	0.05067567567567568	-0.03957991600324015
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.08911269760326365	0.08942766295707473	-0.08680082988975137
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.05940846506884243	0.05961844197138315	-0.06383591116735972
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.044556348801631826	0.044713831478537365	0.15042564095495575
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.08911269760326365	0.08942766295707473	-0.03744765923989124
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.044556348801631826	0.044713831478537365	-0.06742294653309146
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.11881693013768486	0.1192368839427663	-0.0004792473813460818

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.