FROZEN PREDICTION

Arkansas State vs TCU

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 3 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

TCU by 9.0

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans home

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritAway data unavailable

Defensive toughnessModerately leans home

Scoring punchModerately leans home

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceModerately leans home

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentModerately leans home

Big-game winsSmall effect

Recent formSmall effect

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesStrongly leans home

Statement winsSmall effect

WinningSmall effect

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-09-19T18:09:55.921026-05:00 · Snapshot 104 · Home win probability 0.7560 · 80% margin interval -7.6 to 25.7.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Sep 17, 2026 · 11:28 AM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.11881693013768486	0.1192368839427663	0.2082533392030097
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.044556348801631826	0.044713831478537365	0.02834514082987836
Close-game grit	Measured	Data unavailable	0.027027	0.029704232534421216	0.02702702702702703	-0.030382086985088444
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.07426058133605304	0.07452305246422894	0.1301816248407107
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.07426058133605304	0.07452305246422894	0.12295613119374924
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.030405405405405407	0.030405405405405407	0.02528135706754884
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.04054054054054054	0.04054054054054054	0.06382856838079107
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.05067567567567568	0.05067567567567568	0.048413586110991655
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.04054054054054054	0.04054054054054054	-0.011838054869103911
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.05067567567567568	0.05067567567567568	0.058185833545340376
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.08911269760326365	0.08942766295707473	0.00004338081202971168
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.05940846506884243	0.05961844197138315	0.02662593959918641
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.044556348801631826	0.044713831478537365	0.00005901693678008607
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.08911269760326365	0.08942766295707473	0.2605391875042681
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.044556348801631826	0.044713831478537365	-0.000012616523345183612
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.11881693013768486	0.1192368839427663	0.0001799167910036814

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.