FROZEN PREDICTION

East Texas A&M vs Tulsa

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 3 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Tulsa by 8.3

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans away

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans home

Close-game gritModerately leans home

Defensive toughnessSmall effect

Scoring punchSmall effect

Transfer portal impactModerately leans home

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthModerately leans home

Returning productionModerately leans home

Team talentModerately leans home

Big-game winsSmall effect

Recent formModerately leans home

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesModerately leans away

Statement winsModerately leans home

WinningStrongly leans home

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-09-19T18:09:55.921026-05:00 · Snapshot 104 · Home win probability 0.7387 · 80% margin interval -8.3 to 25.0.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Sep 17, 2026 · 11:28 AM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.108108	0.11881693013768486	0.10810810810810811	-0.05481866383020145
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.040541	0.044556348801631826	0.04054054054054054	0.08812304242712553
Close-game grit	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.027027	0.029704232534421216	0.02702702702702703	0.0700290367319499
Defensive toughness	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.067568	0.07426058133605304	0.06756756756756757	-0.02060137042124846
Scoring punch	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.067568	0.07426058133605304	0.06756756756756757	-0.035789057247429215
Transfer portal impact	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.040541	0.030405405405405407	0.04054054054054054	0.05683612743552767
Previous-season performance	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.054054	0.04054054054054054	0.05405405405405406	0.03473843821703027
Recruiting strength	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.067568	0.05067567567567568	0.06756756756756757	0.07515717074546473
Returning production	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.054054	0.04054054054054054	0.05405405405405406	0.0798255211303985
Team talent	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.067568	0.05067567567567568	0.06756756756756757	0.07773221990822707
Big-game wins	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.081081	0.08911269760326365	0.08108108108108109	0.017966212736124157
Recent form	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.054054	0.05940846506884243	0.05405405405405406	0.08627302748064675
Wins away from home	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.040541	0.044556348801631826	0.04054054054054054	0.044113233197530605
Tough schedules	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.081081	0.08911269760326365	0.08108108108108109	-0.051364323925098626
Statement wins	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.040541	0.044556348801631826	0.04054054054054054	0.0643803857372589
Winning	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.108108	0.11881693013768486	0.10810810810810811	0.2977549391272998

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.