FROZEN PREDICTION

UTSA vs Texas

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 3 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Texas by 5.9

Why this pick?

Game controlSmall effect
Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect
Close-game gritNeutral effect
Defensive toughnessSmall effect
Scoring punchSmall effect
Transfer portal impactSmall effect
Previous-season performanceSmall effect
Recruiting strengthModerately leans home
Returning productionSmall effect
Team talentModerately leans home
Big-game winsModerately leans home
Recent formSmall effect
Wins away from homeNeutral effect
Tough schedulesModerately leans home
Statement winsNeutral effect
WinningNeutral effect
Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-09-19T18:20:44.106448-05:00 · Snapshot 104 · Home win probability 0.6738 · 80% margin interval -10.8 to 22.5.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used
Configuration
Revision 3
Engine version
3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff
Sep 17, 2026 · 11:28 AM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor keyNormalized share
adj_margin0.108108
avoid_bad_losses0.040541
close_game_wins0.027027
defense_ppg0.067568
offense_ppg0.067568
preseason_portal0.040541
preseason_previous_performance0.054054
preseason_recruiting0.067568
preseason_returning0.054054
preseason_talent0.067568
quality_wins0.081081
recent_form0.054054
road_neutral_wins0.040541
sos0.081081
statement_wins0.040541
win_pct0.108108
Retained calibration/contextFrozen value
versionprovisional-all-slates-policy-v1
calibration_kinddocumented_policy
validation_statusnot_historically_validated
applied_home_field_points2.5
applied_fcs_baseline_z-1.5
residual_scale13.0
residual_scale_sourcedocumented_policy_not_validated
intercept0.0
difference_coefficient7.0
home_field_coefficient2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

FactorHome evidenceAway evidenceNormalized shareHome effective shareAway effective shareWeighted difference
Game controlMeasuredMeasured0.1081080.118816930137684860.118816930137684860.025839926244877458
Avoiding bad lossesMeasuredMeasured0.0405410.0445563488016318260.044556348801631826-0.008694551241179776
Close-game gritMeasuredMeasured0.0270270.0297042325344212160.0297042325344212160.0
Defensive toughnessMeasuredMeasured0.0675680.074260581336053040.074260581336053040.039626368235951274
Scoring punchMeasuredMeasured0.0675680.074260581336053040.074260581336053040.034188142579919256
Transfer portal impactMeasuredMeasured0.0405410.0304054054054054070.030405405405405407-0.015201861766107796
Previous-season performanceMeasuredMeasured0.0540540.040540540540540540.040540540540540540.03351982735935369
Recruiting strengthMeasuredMeasured0.0675680.050675675675675680.050675675675675680.13201326109851838
Returning productionMeasuredMeasured0.0540540.040540540540540540.040540540540540540.008099721752544774
Team talentMeasuredMeasured0.0675680.050675675675675680.050675675675675680.09673631370076391
Big-game winsMeasuredMeasured0.0810810.089112697603263650.089112697603263650.057491929794583216
Recent formMeasuredMeasured0.0540540.059408465068842430.059408465068842430.004095780886852481
Wins away from homeMeasuredMeasured0.0405410.0445563488016318260.0445563488016318260.0
Tough schedulesMeasuredMeasured0.0810810.089112697603263650.089112697603263650.07177624350481138
Statement winsMeasuredMeasured0.0405410.0445563488016318260.0445563488016318260.0
WinningMeasuredMeasured0.1081080.118816930137684860.118816930137684860.0

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.