FROZEN PREDICTION

Purdue vs UCLA

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 3 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

UCLA by 6.6

Why this pick?

Game controlSmall effect

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritHome data unavailable

Defensive toughnessModerately leans home

Scoring punchSmall effect

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans home

Recent formSmall effect

Wins away from homeModerately leans home

Tough schedulesModerately leans away

Statement winsModerately leans home

WinningModerately leans home

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-09-19T18:20:44.106448-05:00 · Snapshot 104 · Home win probability 0.6940 · 80% margin interval -10.1 to 23.3.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Sep 17, 2026 · 11:28 AM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.1192368839427663	0.11881693013768486	0.0069865052907832625
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.044713831478537365	0.044556348801631826	0.04366148187990995
Close-game grit	Data unavailable	Measured	0.027027	0.02702702702702703	0.029704232534421216	0.030382086985088444
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.07452305246422894	0.07426058133605304	0.05843673523597295
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.07452305246422894	0.07426058133605304	-0.021517315222930385
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.030405405405405407	0.030405405405405407	0.005703452122755311
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.04054054054054054	0.04054054054054054	-0.006933124435607948
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.05067567567567568	0.05067567567567568	0.004816096697605061
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.04054054054054054	0.04054054054054054	0.014797568586379884
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.05067567567567568	0.05067567567567568	0.029853639586681725
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.08942766295707473	0.08911269760326365	0.12856056769457538
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.05961844197138315	0.05940846506884243	0.03292212341583607
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.044713831478537365	0.044556348801631826	0.06129643244418259
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.08942766295707473	0.08911269760326365	-0.058295584491265456
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.044713831478537365	0.044556348801631826	0.06742294653309146
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.1192368839427663	0.11881693013768486	0.1869756250011699

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.