FROZEN PREDICTION

Northern Illinois vs Arizona

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 3 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Arizona by 12.3

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans home

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans home

Close-game gritHome data unavailable

Defensive toughnessModerately leans home

Scoring punchModerately leans home

Transfer portal impactModerately leans home

Previous-season performanceModerately leans home

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentModerately leans home

Big-game winsModerately leans home

Recent formModerately leans home

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesModerately leans home

Statement winsModerately leans home

WinningModerately leans home

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-09-19T18:31:30.487173-05:00 · Snapshot 104 · Home win probability 0.8271 · 80% margin interval -4.4 to 28.9.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Sep 17, 2026 · 11:28 AM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.1192368839427663	0.11881693013768486	0.21076360800881994
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.044713831478537365	0.044556348801631826	0.052133236617434145
Close-game grit	Data unavailable	Measured	0.027027	0.02702702702702703	0.029704232534421216	0.030382086985088444
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.07452305246422894	0.07426058133605304	0.18200939529743065
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.07452305246422894	0.07426058133605304	0.07313796310405815
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.030405405405405407	0.030405405405405407	0.07474248701669672
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.04054054054054054	0.04054054054054054	0.10563238264619321
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.05067567567567568	0.05067567567567568	0.036486042989679
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.04054054054054054	0.04054054054054054	0.03302194252960566
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.05067567567567568	0.05067567567567568	0.06835529723314639
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.08942766295707473	0.08911269760326365	0.09133835689848997
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.05961844197138315	0.05940846506884243	0.10566778304614871
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.044713831478537365	0.044556348801631826	-0.00005901693678008607
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.08942766295707473	0.08911269760326365	0.0762753403128834
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.044713831478537365	0.044556348801631826	0.06718552650286845
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.1192368839427663	0.11881693013768486	0.1863164608288201

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.