FROZEN PREDICTION

North Dakota State vs Sacramento State

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 3 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

North Dakota State by 8.2

Why this pick?

Game controlStrongly leans away

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans away

Close-game gritHome data unavailable

Defensive toughnessModerately leans away

Scoring punchModerately leans away

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceModerately leans away

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionNot used — data unavailable

Team talentNot used — data unavailable

Big-game winsModerately leans away

Recent formModerately leans away

Wins away from homeModerately leans away

Tough schedulesModerately leans away

Statement winsSmall effect

WinningStrongly leans away

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-09-19T18:52:18.439561-05:00 · Snapshot 104 · Home win probability 0.2653 · 80% margin interval -24.8 to 8.5.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Sep 17, 2026 · 11:28 AM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.1248012718600954	0.12417134115247323	-0.2506110330376531
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.04680047694753577	0.04656425293217746	-0.0934629304809578
Close-game grit	Data unavailable	Measured	0.027027	0.02702702702702703	0.031042835288118308	-0.03081737692106515
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.07800079491255962	0.07760708822029577	-0.14638705131108964
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.07800079491255962	0.07760708822029577	-0.08491192363548566
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.02533783783783784	0.02533783783783784	0.04264048786447509
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.033783783783783786	0.033783783783783786	-0.05106019566796597
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.04222972972972973	0.04222972972972973	0.004130951984400388
Returning production	Data unavailable	Data unavailable	0.054054	0.033783783783783786	0.033783783783783786	0.0
Team talent	Data unavailable	Data unavailable	0.067568	0.04222972972972973	0.04222972972972973	0.0
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.09360095389507155	0.09312850586435492	-0.23295906203960642
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.0624006359300477	0.062085670576236617	-0.11155846194127939
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.04680047694753577	0.04656425293217746	-0.1572313277589288
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.09360095389507155	0.09312850586435492	-0.10189325547383793
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.04680047694753577	0.04656425293217746	-0.04689979547333811
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.1248012718600954	0.12417134115247323	-0.2604670850290587

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.