FROZEN PREDICTION

UAlbany vs Buffalo

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 1 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Buffalo by 7.4

Why this pick?

Transfer portal impactEvidence not retained

Recruiting strengthEvidence not retained

Returning productionEvidence not retained

Team talentEvidence not retained

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-08-30T00:51:00.477649-05:00 · Snapshot 1 · Home win probability 0.7159 · 80% margin interval -9.2 to 24.1.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Legacy (created before revision tracking)
Engine version: 3.6.0-bounded-insane-controls
Evidence cutoff: Aug 26, 2026 · 9:47 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`preseason_portal`	0.176471
`preseason_recruiting`	0.294118
`preseason_returning`	0.235294
`preseason_talent`	0.294118

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

The complete selected factor list was not retained for this older run. Omitted factors cannot be reconstructed reliably.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Evidence not retained	0.176471	0.17647058823529413	0.17647058823529413	0.3020557844285311
Recruiting strength	Measured	Evidence not retained	0.294118	0.29411764705882354	0.29411764705882354	0.28096974627204885
Returning production	Measured	Evidence not retained	0.235294	0.23529411764705882	0.23529411764705882	-0.005566056341080761
Team talent	Measured	Evidence not retained	0.294118	0.29411764705882354	0.29411764705882354	0.12517942726594256

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.