FROZEN PREDICTION

Army vs Temple

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 4 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Army by 1.3

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans away

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritSmall effect

Defensive toughnessModerately leans away

Scoring punchModerately leans away

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthModerately leans home

Returning productionModerately leans away

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsSmall effect

Recent formModerately leans away

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesSmall effect

Statement winsSmall effect

WinningModerately leans away

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-09-20T15:54:23.306984-05:00 · Snapshot 189 · Home win probability 0.4605 · 80% margin interval -17.9 to 15.4.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Sep 20, 2026 · 3:51 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.12417134115247323	0.11881693013768486	-0.1291462434095862
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.04656425293217746	0.044556348801631826	-0.03907938127331437
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.031042835288118308	0.029704232534421216	-0.001427668629403786
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.07760708822029577	0.07426058133605304	-0.1062114314452009
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.07760708822029577	0.07426058133605304	-0.08131690253478696
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.02533783783783784	0.030405405405405407	0.021381409793287117
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.033783783783783786	0.04054054054054054	-0.01023816227930747
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.04222972972972973	0.05067567567567568	0.05666733091801051
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.033783783783783786	0.04054054054054054	-0.06596442830064474
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.04222972972972973	0.05067567567567568	0.02816226346825359
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.09312850586435492	0.08911269760326365	-0.0018011219982394036
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.062085670576236617	0.05940846506884243	-0.06758704948523156
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.04656425293217746	0.044556348801631826	-0.001043802494124394
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.09312850586435492	0.08911269760326365	-0.03661350563169476
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.04656425293217746	0.044556348801631826	-0.027843980985114022
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.12417134115247323	0.11881693013768486	-0.07909588344450022

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.