FROZEN PREDICTION

Clemson vs California

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 4 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

California by 6.3

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans home

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritNeutral effect

Defensive toughnessModerately leans home

Scoring punchModerately leans home

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthModerately leans away

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentModerately leans away

Big-game winsModerately leans home

Recent formSmall effect

Wins away from homeModerately leans home

Tough schedulesModerately leans home

Statement winsNeutral effect

WinningNeutral effect

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-09-20T15:54:23.306984-05:00 · Snapshot 189 · Home win probability 0.6858 · 80% margin interval -10.4 to 23.0.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Sep 20, 2026 · 3:51 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.12417134115247323	0.12417134115247323	0.12353279649315271
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.04656425293217746	0.04656425293217746	0.04012169093687052
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.031042835288118308	0.031042835288118308	0.0
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.07760708822029577	0.07760708822029577	0.11886008260442307
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.07760708822029577	0.07760708822029577	0.057222526794050474
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.02533783783783784	0.02533783783783784	0.015559876626541506
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.033783783783783786	0.033783783783783786	-0.03472244264432327
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.04222972972972973	0.04222972972972973	-0.0523540453616925
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.033783783783783786	0.033783783783783786	0.02193674641314212
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.04222972972972973	0.04222972972972973	-0.06039073122061174
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.09312850586435492	0.09312850586435492	0.06793464143982225
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.062085670576236617	0.062085670576236617	0.04848117818396325
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.04656425293217746	0.04656425293217746	0.12462087904604124
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.09312850586435492	0.09312850586435492	0.0706947470361132
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.04656425293217746	0.04656425293217746	0.0
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.12417134115247323	0.12417134115247323	0.0

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.