FROZEN PREDICTION

Illinois vs Ohio State

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 4 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Ohio State by 5.3

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans home

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritNeutral effect

Defensive toughnessModerately leans home

Scoring punchSmall effect

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthModerately leans home

Returning productionModerately leans home

Team talentModerately leans home

Big-game winsModerately leans away

Recent formSmall effect

Wins away from homeNeutral effect

Tough schedulesModerately leans home

Statement winsNeutral effect

WinningNeutral effect

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-09-20T15:54:23.306984-05:00 · Snapshot 189 · Home win probability 0.6578 · 80% margin interval -11.4 to 21.9.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Sep 20, 2026 · 3:51 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.12417134115247323	0.12417134115247323	0.058288587042130746
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.04656425293217746	0.04656425293217746	0.008597505200757964
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.031042835288118308	0.031042835288118308	0.0
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.07760708822029577	0.07760708822029577	0.12125015940547383
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.07760708822029577	0.07760708822029577	0.002773948833858564
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.02533783783783784	0.02533783783783784	-0.02611902004228155
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.033783783783783786	0.033783783783783786	0.028467325711342695
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.04222972972972973	0.04222972972972973	0.060830170477909534
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.033783783783783786	0.033783783783783786	0.06126712607694131
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.04222972972972973	0.04222972972972973	0.08060097911524669
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.09312850586435492	0.09312850586435492	-0.0819174134635271
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.062085670576236617	0.062085670576236617	0.03176353053432074
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.04656425293217746	0.04656425293217746	0.0
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.09312850586435492	0.09312850586435492	0.05179855953231721
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.04656425293217746	0.04656425293217746	0.0
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.12417134115247323	0.12417134115247323	0.0

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.