FROZEN PREDICTION

Sam Houston vs Texas Tech

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 4 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Texas Tech by 9.6

Why this pick?

Game controlSmall effect

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritModerately leans home

Defensive toughnessSmall effect

Scoring punchModerately leans away

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceModerately leans home

Recruiting strengthModerately leans home

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentModerately leans home

Big-game winsModerately leans home

Recent formSmall effect

Wins away from homeModerately leans home

Tough schedulesSmall effect

Statement winsNeutral effect

WinningStrongly leans home

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-09-20T15:54:23.306984-05:00 · Snapshot 189 · Home win probability 0.7704 · 80% margin interval -7.0 to 26.3.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Sep 20, 2026 · 3:51 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.12417134115247323	0.12417134115247323	0.016288242204939365
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.04656425293217746	0.04656425293217746	0.022926680535354585
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.031042835288118308	0.031042835288118308	0.06621663071615663
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.07760708822029577	0.07760708822029577	0.021518076512645923
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.07760708822029577	0.07760708822029577	-0.05116749997219522
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.02533783783783784	0.02533783783783784	-0.00582921631731791
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.033783783783783786	0.033783783783783786	0.11652957359357359
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.04222972972972973	0.04222972972972973	0.08583787689351935
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.033783783783783786	0.033783783783783786	-0.0055815390281959126
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.04222972972972973	0.04222972972972973	0.08835360245323082
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.09312850586435492	0.09312850586435492	0.24717935937977362
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.062085670576236617	0.062085670576236617	0.0167176476496425
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.04656425293217746	0.04656425293217746	0.11005406346352825
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.09312850586435492	0.09312850586435492	-0.018456831948183455
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.04656425293217746	0.04656425293217746	0.0
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.12417134115247323	0.12417134115247323	0.3068504457076767

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.