FROZEN PREDICTION

Texas vs Tennessee

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 4 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Tennessee by 7.8

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans home

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritHome data unavailable

Defensive toughnessSmall effect

Scoring punchModerately leans home

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthNeutral effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans home

Recent formSmall effect

Wins away from homeModerately leans home

Tough schedulesModerately leans home

Statement winsModerately leans home

WinningSmall effect

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-09-20T15:54:23.306984-05:00 · Snapshot 189 · Home win probability 0.7260 · 80% margin interval -8.9 to 24.5.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Sep 20, 2026 · 3:51 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.1248012718600954	0.12417134115247323	0.1489798897464
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.04680047694753577	0.04656425293217746	0.04383297872842947
Close-game grit	Data unavailable	Measured	0.027027	0.02702702702702703	0.031042835288118308	-0.033108315358078316
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.07800079491255962	0.07760708822029577	0.02025728814250214
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.07800079491255962	0.07760708822029577	0.14394169498867612
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.02533783783783784	0.02533783783783784	-0.0009638861627061165
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.033783783783783786	0.033783783783783786	0.0010878138698590945
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.04222972972972973	0.04222972972972973	0.0
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.033783783783783786	0.033783783783783786	-0.047767589822700005
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.04222972972972973	0.04222972972972973	-0.016122466637419466
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.09360095389507155	0.09312850586435492	0.16496463694837726
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.0624006359300477	0.062085670576236617	0.03468624710076826
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.04680047694753577	0.04656425293217746	0.10945275780528188
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.09360095389507155	0.09312850586435492	0.13120480384698244
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.04680047694753577	0.04656425293217746	0.05724641542756119
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.1248012718600954	0.12417134115247323	0.0008871218860572461

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.