FROZEN PREDICTION

UCLA vs Maryland

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 4 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Maryland by 1.5

Why this pick?

Game controlSmall effect

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans away

Close-game gritNot used — data unavailable

Defensive toughnessModerately leans home

Scoring punchSmall effect

Transfer portal impactModerately leans away

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans away

Recent formSmall effect

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesModerately leans home

Statement winsModerately leans away

WinningModerately leans away

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-09-20T15:54:23.306984-05:00 · Snapshot 189 · Home win probability 0.5459 · 80% margin interval -15.2 to 18.2.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Sep 20, 2026 · 3:51 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.1248012718600954	0.1248012718600954	0.039459514232667636
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.04680047694753577	0.04680047694753577	-0.0662485943486195
Close-game grit	Data unavailable	Data unavailable	0.027027	0.02702702702702703	0.02702702702702703	0.0
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.07800079491255962	0.07800079491255962	0.0972325280170083
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.07800079491255962	0.07800079491255962	0.024218221364574133
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.02533783783783784	0.02533783783783784	-0.05037682180371866
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.033783783783783786	0.033783783783783786	0.013271715917426985
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.04222972972972973	0.04222972972972973	0.0237429320577161
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.033783783783783786	0.033783783783783786	-0.0038940969964157465
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.04222972972972973	0.04222972972972973	-0.02122896045237015
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.09360095389507155	0.09360095389507155	-0.09262914850572565
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.0624006359300477	0.0624006359300477	-0.005040737266312663
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.04680047694753577	0.04680047694753577	0.017407669599848463
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.09360095389507155	0.09360095389507155	0.09220209055194825
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.04680047694753577	0.04680047694753577	-0.057039873403095354
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.1248012718600954	0.1248012718600954	-0.15420356074003974

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.