FROZEN PREDICTION

Boise State vs Western Michigan

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 4 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Western Michigan by 4.3

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans home

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritSmall effect

Defensive toughnessSmall effect

Scoring punchSmall effect

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans home

Recent formSmall effect

Wins away from homeModerately leans home

Tough schedulesSmall effect

Statement winsModerately leans away

WinningNeutral effect

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-09-25T16:39:43.396462-05:00 · Snapshot 193 · Home win probability 0.6289 · 80% margin interval -12.4 to 20.9.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Sep 21, 2026 · 4:13 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.12417134115247323	0.12417134115247323	0.07902659911105643
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.04656425293217746	0.04656425293217746	0.017195010401515935
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.031042835288118308	0.031042835288118308	0.033108315358078316
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.07760708822029577	0.07760708822029577	-0.02389045999567291
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.07760708822029577	0.07760708822029577	0.0014572115994563061
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.02533783783783784	0.02533783783783784	0.03892264123689439
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.033783783783783786	0.033783783783783786	-0.013177740164657328
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.04222972972972973	0.04222972972972973	-0.03165361315834934
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.033783783783783786	0.033783783783783786	0.029367981514635537
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.04222972972972973	0.04222972972972973	-0.024064324506252264
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.09312850586435492	0.09312850586435492	0.0622950708438362
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.062085670576236617	0.062085670576236617	0.026748236239427993
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.04656425293217746	0.04656425293217746	0.06817013874452535
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.09312850586435492	0.09312850586435492	0.04701335396703611
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.04656425293217746	0.04656425293217746	-0.056751966338688405
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.12417134115247323	0.12417134115247323	0.0

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.