FROZEN PREDICTION

TCU vs UCF

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 4 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

UCF by 5.4

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans home
Avoiding bad lossesNeutral effect
Close-game gritNeutral effect
Defensive toughnessModerately leans home
Scoring punchModerately leans home
Transfer portal impactSmall effect
Previous-season performanceSmall effect
Recruiting strengthSmall effect
Returning productionSmall effect
Team talentSmall effect
Big-game winsModerately leans home
Recent formSmall effect
Wins away from homeNeutral effect
Tough schedulesModerately leans home
Statement winsNeutral effect
WinningNeutral effect
Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-09-25T16:39:43.396462-05:00 · Snapshot 193 · Home win probability 0.6609 · 80% margin interval -11.3 to 22.1.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used
Configuration
Revision 3
Engine version
3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff
Sep 21, 2026 · 4:13 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor keyNormalized share
adj_margin0.108108
avoid_bad_losses0.040541
close_game_wins0.027027
defense_ppg0.067568
offense_ppg0.067568
preseason_portal0.040541
preseason_previous_performance0.054054
preseason_recruiting0.067568
preseason_returning0.054054
preseason_talent0.067568
quality_wins0.081081
recent_form0.054054
road_neutral_wins0.040541
sos0.081081
statement_wins0.040541
win_pct0.108108
Retained calibration/contextFrozen value
versionprovisional-all-slates-policy-v1
calibration_kinddocumented_policy
validation_statusnot_historically_validated
applied_home_field_points2.5
applied_fcs_baseline_z-1.5
residual_scale13.0
residual_scale_sourcedocumented_policy_not_validated
intercept0.0
difference_coefficient7.0
home_field_coefficient2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

FactorHome evidenceAway evidenceNormalized shareHome effective shareAway effective shareWeighted difference
Game controlMeasuredMeasured0.1081080.124171341152473230.124171341152473230.08607891673499778
Avoiding bad lossesMeasuredMeasured0.0405410.046564252932177460.046564252932177460.0
Close-game gritMeasuredMeasured0.0270270.0310428352881183080.0310428352881183080.0
Defensive toughnessMeasuredMeasured0.0675680.077607088220295770.077607088220295770.0509406431788197
Scoring punchMeasuredMeasured0.0675680.077607088220295770.077607088220295770.08236813875627072
Transfer portal impactMeasuredMeasured0.0405410.025337837837837840.02533783783783784-0.0029834571702808213
Previous-season performanceMeasuredMeasured0.0540540.0337837837837837860.033783783783783786-0.024656283743899617
Recruiting strengthMeasuredMeasured0.0675680.042229729729729730.04222972972972973-0.026247345895493983
Returning productionMeasuredMeasured0.0540540.0337837837837837860.0337837837837837860.003115277597132607
Team talentMeasuredMeasured0.0675680.042229729729729730.04222972972972973-0.011044988783865718
Big-game winsMeasuredMeasured0.0810810.093128505864354920.093128505864354920.12853924254190463
Recent formMeasuredMeasured0.0540540.0620856705762366170.062085670576236617-0.01671764764964251
Wins away from homeMeasuredMeasured0.0405410.046564252932177460.046564252932177460.0
Tough schedulesMeasuredMeasured0.0810810.093128505864354920.093128505864354920.14408488396070057
Statement winsMeasuredMeasured0.0405410.046564252932177460.046564252932177460.0
WinningMeasuredMeasured0.1081080.124171341152473230.124171341152473230.0

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.