FROZEN PREDICTION

New Mexico vs New Mexico State

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 4 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

New Mexico by 5.7

Why this pick?

Game controlStrongly leans away

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritHome data unavailable

Defensive toughnessModerately leans away

Scoring punchModerately leans away

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentNeutral effect

Big-game winsSmall effect

Recent formModerately leans away

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesModerately leans away

Statement winsModerately leans away

WinningModerately leans away

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-09-25T16:39:43.396462-05:00 · Snapshot 193 · Home win probability 0.3307 · 80% margin interval -22.4 to 11.0.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Sep 21, 2026 · 4:13 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.1248012718600954	0.12417134115247323	-0.2924809094783549
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.04680047694753577	0.04656425293217746	-0.025858892741328656
Close-game grit	Data unavailable	Measured	0.027027	0.02702702702702703	0.031042835288118308	0.033108315358078316
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.07800079491255962	0.07760708822029577	-0.14400989716082513
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.07800079491255962	0.07760708822029577	-0.18842908169781913
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.02533783783783784	0.02533783783783784	0.006793102480024018
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.033783783783783786	0.033783783783783786	-0.0438849608769076
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.04222972972972973	0.04222972972972973	0.0008697696173809166
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.033783783783783786	0.033783783783783786	-0.043873492826284236
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.04222972972972973	0.04222972972972973	0.0
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.09360095389507155	0.09312850586435492	-0.007185238679525946
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.0624006359300477	0.062085670576236617	-0.0837040283507542
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.04680047694753577	0.04656425293217746	-0.00012280029342640053
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.09360095389507155	0.09312850586435492	-0.1709276109050011
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.04680047694753577	0.04656425293217746	-0.05683333137862949
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.1248012718600954	0.12417134115247323	-0.15409477674018385

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.