FROZEN PREDICTION

Arizona vs Washington State

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 4 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Arizona by 1.0

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans away

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritNot used — data unavailable

Defensive toughnessSmall effect

Scoring punchSmall effect

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsNeutral effect

Recent formModerately leans away

Wins away from homeNeutral effect

Tough schedulesModerately leans home

Statement winsModerately leans away

WinningModerately leans away

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-09-25T16:39:43.396462-05:00 · Snapshot 193 · Home win probability 0.4706 · 80% margin interval -17.6 to 15.7.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Sep 21, 2026 · 4:13 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.1248012718600954	0.1248012718600954	-0.09172828679839701
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.04680047694753577	0.04680047694753577	-0.04608597867730052
Close-game grit	Data unavailable	Data unavailable	0.027027	0.02702702702702703	0.02702702702702703	0.0
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.07800079491255962	0.07800079491255962	0.0027950764899377714
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.07800079491255962	0.07800079491255962	-0.04573641430195266
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.02533783783783784	0.02533783783783784	-0.042043796430418945
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.033783783783783786	0.033783783783783786	-0.027213022465565683
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.04222972972972973	0.04222972972972973	-0.02501600909191988
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.033783783783783786	0.033783783783783786	0.031185226779629555
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.04222972972972973	0.04222972972972973	-0.025912515090874003
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.09360095389507155	0.09360095389507155	0.0
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.0624006359300477	0.0624006359300477	-0.08065179626100269
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.04680047694753577	0.04680047694753577	0.0
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.09360095389507155	0.09360095389507155	0.06751805930865507
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.04680047694753577	0.04680047694753577	-0.057039873403095326
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.1248012718600954	0.1248012718600954	-0.1542035607400397

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.