FROZEN PREDICTION

Northwestern vs Indiana

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 4 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Northwestern by 1.4

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans away

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritNot used — data unavailable

Defensive toughnessSmall effect

Scoring punchModerately leans away

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionModerately leans away

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans away

Recent formSmall effect

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesModerately leans away

Statement winsSmall effect

WinningSmall effect

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-09-25T18:30:26.582349-05:00 · Snapshot 193 · Home win probability 0.4575 · 80% margin interval -18.0 to 15.3.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Sep 21, 2026 · 4:13 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.1248012718600954	0.1192368839427663	-0.14071776497986122
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.04680047694753577	0.044713831478537365	0.004083726675202265
Close-game grit	Data unavailable	Data unavailable	0.027027	0.02702702702702703	0.02702702702702703	0.0
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.07800079491255962	0.07452305246422894	-0.012226640594754992
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.07800079491255962	0.07452305246422894	-0.06214988258677247
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.02533783783783784	0.030405405405405407	-0.018826412993882078
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.033783783783783786	0.04054054054054054	0.04761499754745588
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.04222972972972973	0.05067567567567568	0.011312904457790955
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.033783783783783786	0.04054054054054054	-0.10537268990437224
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.04222972972972973	0.05067567567567568	-0.011602156202564093
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.09360095389507155	0.08942766295707473	-0.09141284155698662
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.0624006359300477	0.05961844197138315	0.013153859656467787
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.04680047694753577	0.044713831478537365	-0.00108473592526653
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.09360095389507155	0.08942766295707473	-0.20028767356551141
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.04680047694753577	0.044713831478537365	0.004367633618376027
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.1248012718600954	0.1192368839427663	0.007836243326838965

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.