FROZEN PREDICTION

Bucknell vs Pittsburgh

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 4 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Pittsburgh by 20.1

Why this pick?

Game controlStrongly leans home

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans home

Close-game gritModerately leans home

Defensive toughnessModerately leans home

Scoring punchModerately leans home

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceModerately leans home

Recruiting strengthModerately leans home

Returning productionModerately leans home

Team talentModerately leans home

Big-game winsStrongly leans home

Recent formModerately leans home

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesModerately leans home

Statement winsModerately leans home

WinningStrongly leans home

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-09-25T18:30:26.582349-05:00 · Snapshot 193 · Home win probability 0.9393 · 80% margin interval 3.5 to 36.8.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Sep 21, 2026 · 4:13 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.108108	0.12417134115247323	0.10810810810810811	0.3364201871438316
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.040541	0.04656425293217746	0.04054054054054054	0.11077498384888723
Close-game grit	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.027027	0.031042835288118308	0.02702702702702703	0.07364885589861886
Defensive toughness	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.067568	0.07760708822029577	0.06756756756756757	0.2232190328729316
Scoring punch	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.067568	0.07760708822029577	0.06756756756756757	0.1598006257420306
Transfer portal impact	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.040541	0.02533783783783784	0.04054054054054054	0.0462532360998369
Previous-season performance	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.054054	0.033783783783783786	0.05405405405405406	0.10924689926829305
Recruiting strength	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.067568	0.04222972972972973	0.06756756756756757	0.11858990858981161
Returning production	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.054054	0.033783783783783786	0.05405405405405406	0.0779579293907572
Team talent	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.067568	0.04222972972972973	0.06756756756756757	0.10892797598416132
Big-game wins	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.081081	0.09312850586435492	0.08108108108108109	0.32703210418508144
Recent form	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.054054	0.062085670576236617	0.05405405405405406	0.13515782553270367
Wins away from home	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.040541	0.04656425293217746	0.04054054054054054	0.03660453392325931
Tough schedules	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.081081	0.09312850586435492	0.08108108108108109	0.21680112156553155
Statement wins	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.040541	0.04656425293217746	0.04054054054054054	0.1015241779668264
Winning	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.108108	0.12417134115247323	0.10810810810810811	0.3370307834637788

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.