FROZEN PREDICTION

Northern Illinois vs Georgia State

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 4 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Georgia State by 13.2

Why this pick?

Game controlStrongly leans home

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans home

Close-game gritHome data unavailable

Defensive toughnessModerately leans home

Scoring punchModerately leans home

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans home

Recent formModerately leans home

Wins away from homeModerately leans home

Tough schedulesSmall effect

Statement winsModerately leans home

WinningModerately leans home

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-09-25T18:30:26.582349-05:00 · Snapshot 193 · Home win probability 0.8454 · 80% margin interval -3.4 to 29.9.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Sep 21, 2026 · 4:13 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.1248012718600954	0.12417134115247323	0.29559435787018323
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.04680047694753577	0.04656425293217746	0.06015977506748692
Close-game grit	Data unavailable	Measured	0.027027	0.02702702702702703	0.031042835288118308	0.033108315358078316
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.07800079491255962	0.07760708822029577	0.13385757527651873
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.07800079491255962	0.07760708822029577	0.18840545222985255
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.02533783783783784	0.02533783783783784	0.04259458852339385
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.033783783783783786	0.033783783783783786	-0.002716877528886337
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.04222972972972973	0.04222972972972973	-0.0009654696823897593
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.033783783783783786	0.033783783783783786	0.003634490529988047
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.04222972972972973	0.04222972972972973	0.04445749911404091
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.09360095389507155	0.09312850586435492	0.18166126378565145
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.0624006359300477	0.062085670576236617	0.13577690731708644
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.04680047694753577	0.04656425293217746	0.08878646254736268
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.09360095389507155	0.09312850586435492	0.0038513853462043696
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.04680047694753577	0.04656425293217746	0.11371047470184265
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.1248012718600954	0.12417134115247323	0.20915065013821052

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.