FROZEN PREDICTION

Utah vs Iowa State

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 4 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Utah by 1.7

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans away

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans away

Close-game gritAway data unavailable

Defensive toughnessSmall effect

Scoring punchModerately leans away

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionModerately leans away

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsSmall effect

Recent formSmall effect

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesModerately leans home

Statement winsModerately leans away

WinningModerately leans away

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-09-25T18:30:26.582349-05:00 · Snapshot 193 · Home win probability 0.4468 · 80% margin interval -18.4 to 14.9.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Sep 21, 2026 · 4:13 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.12417134115247323	0.1248012718600954	-0.07587536959835452
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.04656425293217746	0.04680047694753577	-0.055296318996106764
Close-game grit	Measured	Data unavailable	0.027027	0.031042835288118308	0.02702702702702703	-0.033108315358078316
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.07760708822029577	0.07800079491255962	0.011953006882922751
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.07760708822029577	0.07800079491255962	-0.0955419127229548
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.02533783783783784	0.02533783783783784	-0.006930800503267732
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.033783783783783786	0.033783783783783786	-0.03962575025155944
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.04222972972972973	0.04222972972972973	-0.012923138361461148
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.033783783783783786	0.033783783783783786	-0.08495621613847053
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.04222972972972973	0.04222972972972973	-0.01858598483818412
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.09312850586435492	0.09360095389507155	-0.012773740996188925
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.062085670576236617	0.0624006359300477	-0.03468624710076826
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.04656425293217746	0.04680047694753577	0.00012280029342640053
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.09312850586435492	0.09360095389507155	0.0642805516144444
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.04656425293217746	0.04680047694753577	-0.05724641542756119
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.12417134115247323	0.1248012718600954	-0.15431234473989558

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.