FROZEN PREDICTION

James Madison vs Old Dominion

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 4 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

James Madison by 6.9

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans away

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans away

Close-game gritModerately leans away

Defensive toughnessModerately leans away

Scoring punchModerately leans away

Transfer portal impactModerately leans away

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans away

Recent formModerately leans away

Wins away from homeModerately leans away

Tough schedulesSmall effect

Statement winsNeutral effect

WinningStrongly leans away

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-09-25T18:30:26.582349-05:00 · Snapshot 193 · Home win probability 0.2976 · 80% margin interval -23.6 to 9.8.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Sep 21, 2026 · 4:13 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.12417134115247323	0.12417134115247323	-0.18412614122012733
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.04656425293217746	0.04656425293217746	-0.08597505200757968
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.031042835288118308	0.031042835288118308	-0.06621663071615663
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.07760708822029577	0.07760708822029577	-0.06680663966708694
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.07760708822029577	0.07760708822029577	-0.17401061589642858
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.02533783783783784	0.02533783783783784	-0.05292194026667359
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.033783783783783786	0.033783783783783786	-0.014263090695952624
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.04222972972972973	0.04222972972972973	0.001331150398558044
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.033783783783783786	0.033783783783783786	0.0015576387985662965
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.04222972972972973	0.04222972972972973	0.005651804654679439
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.09312850586435492	0.09312850586435492	-0.200259528959678
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.062085670576236617	0.062085670576236617	-0.100305885897855
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.04656425293217746	0.04656425293217746	-0.09522410348583331
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.09312850586435492	0.09312850586435492	-0.005645998108103446
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.04656425293217746	0.04656425293217746	0.0
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.12417134115247323	0.12417134115247323	-0.3068504457076767

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.