FROZEN PREDICTION

Incarnate Word vs Texas State

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 4 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Texas State by 5.5

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans away

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritSmall effect

Defensive toughnessModerately leans away

Scoring punchSmall effect

Transfer portal impactModerately leans home

Previous-season performanceModerately leans home

Recruiting strengthModerately leans home

Returning productionModerately leans home

Team talentModerately leans home

Big-game winsSmall effect

Recent formSmall effect

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesSmall effect

Statement winsSmall effect

WinningSmall effect

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-09-25T18:30:26.582349-05:00 · Snapshot 193 · Home win probability 0.6627 · 80% margin interval -11.2 to 22.1.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Sep 21, 2026 · 4:13 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.108108	0.12417134115247323	0.10810810810810811	-0.0724450699959917
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.040541	0.04656425293217746	0.04054054054054054	-0.003858418827885693
Close-game grit	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.027027	0.031042835288118308	0.02702702702702703	0.0074322251824622265
Defensive toughness	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.067568	0.07760708822029577	0.06756756756756757	-0.05850279059381018
Scoring punch	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.067568	0.07760708822029577	0.06756756756756757	-0.0000923962711112114
Transfer portal impact	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.040541	0.02533783783783784	0.04054054054054054	0.05974764237772245
Previous-season performance	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.054054	0.033783783783783786	0.05405405405405406	0.07768429279754659
Recruiting strength	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.067568	0.04222972972972973	0.06756756756756757	0.07975516097052958
Returning production	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.054054	0.033783783783783786	0.05405405405405406	0.1250765030473879
Team talent	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.067568	0.04222972972972973	0.06756756756756757	0.0871502353923301
Big-game wins	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.081081	0.09312850586435492	0.08108108108108109	-0.0020646686582192486
Recent form	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.054054	0.062085670576236617	0.05405405405405406	0.0014166443355636549
Wins away from home	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.040541	0.04656425293217746	0.04054054054054054	0.03660453392325931
Tough schedules	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.081081	0.09312850586435492	0.08108108108108109	0.00958577884877923
Statement wins	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.040541	0.04656425293217746	0.04054054054054054	0.044772211628138
Winning	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.108108	0.12417134115247323	0.10810810810810811	0.030180337756102127

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.