FROZEN PREDICTION

Middle Tennessee vs Jacksonville State

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 4 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Jacksonville State by 3.4

Why this pick?

Game controlSmall effect

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans away

Close-game gritNeutral effect

Defensive toughnessSmall effect

Scoring punchSmall effect

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsSmall effect

Recent formSmall effect

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesModerately leans home

Statement winsSmall effect

WinningModerately leans away

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-09-25T18:30:26.582349-05:00 · Snapshot 193 · Home win probability 0.6037 · 80% margin interval -13.2 to 20.1.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Sep 21, 2026 · 4:13 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.12952575216726162	0.12417134115247323	0.015750195607530673
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.0485721570627231	0.04656425293217746	-0.070456450219544
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.032381438041815404	0.031042835288118308	0.0
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.0809535951045385	0.07760708822029577	0.02193966434347283
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.0809535951045385	0.07760708822029577	0.02091683684716695
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.02027027027027027	0.02533783783783784	0.0033888680894397093
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02702702702702703	0.033783783783783786	0.03036956028465134
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.033783783783783786	0.04222972972972973	-0.0006120979538312143
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02702702702702703	0.033783783783783786	0.020147036613429127
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.033783783783783786	0.04222972972972973	0.008462381103317394
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.0971443141254462	0.09312850586435492	0.04371403973999449
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.06476287608363081	0.062085670576236617	0.014480466399779379
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.0485721570627231	0.04656425293217746	-0.001043802494124401
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.0971443141254462	0.09312850586435492	0.11845799681763916
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.0485721570627231	0.04656425293217746	-0.015491396936036052
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.12952575216726162	0.12417134115247323	-0.07909588344450019

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.